Paul Mirengoff at Power Line has posted an excellent piece titled Independents poised to deal hard blow to Democrats. He highlights two primary story lines for the upcoming election:
Story number one…is, in my opinion, the abandonment of the Democratic Party by independent voters. This phenomenon pretty much ensures that the Dems will lose control of the House and that the Republicans will enjoy major gains in the Senate.
Story number two is the enthusiasm gap, of which the Tea Party movement is, depending on one’s point of view, a cause, an effect, or some of both. If this gap is large enough, it will propel the Republicans into House gains of historical proportion and into control of the Senate.
He also points out that conservatives must be careful not to push “a hard-right agenda” that will sour the independents who helped elect them. “This doesn’t mean that conservatives should back away from their core agenda. Rather, it means that they should avoid self-inflicted wounds, something the current crop of Dems has been unable to do.”